interest rates

By Sober Look Today we saw another confirmation that the UK's placement on the economic cycle curve (see post) in the "recovery acceleration" section is quite reasonable. The KPMG/REC employment report for the UK showed something we haven't…

By Marc Chandler The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the 25 bp rate cut that was widely expected earlier this week.  Today, the Bank of England provided a new framework for its forward guidance, linking monetary policy to unemployment…

Long-term interest rates are largely a reflection of expected future short-term future interest rates plus a term premium. So when you see yields move up, it reflects either an increase in term premiums from uncertainty or a change in the…

I spoke at a Euromoney conference on inflation-linked products last year. My thesis at the time that deflation is the real problem and that inflation isn't going to be a concern - which has largely proved right - was out of step with most…

By Sober Look Here is a quick update on India's ongoing financial stress. Capital outflows from stocks over the past couple of months reached a post-2008 high, prompting Goldman to downgrade the nation's equity market. Bloomberg: -…

The Fed will be stuck at zero for a very long time, perhaps forever. Investors who are anticipating the Fed's tightening are premature in their assessment of when rate hikes can reasonably occur. Ben Bernanke and other Fed members have made…

Remember how French President Hollande was saying a month ago that the euro crisis is over? Well, he was wrong. Today portugal's yields on 10-year paper vaulted to as high as 7.9% before settling back down again.

Interest rates will stay low for a long time - long as in years, not months. In the UK there is a risk that a weakening currency may lead to some modest increase in inflation but, generally speaking, inflation is not a problem, and all…

The sharp jump in China's short-term rates has been nearly reversed. Repo rates are approaching their longer-term averages, with the PBoC coming to its senses and addressing the liquidity squeeze.