inflation

The Fed could do a number of things: rate easing, municipal easing, inflation targeting, nominal GDP targeting. It is just that “the forward-looking cost-benefit analysis has shifted away from the potential benefits and towards greater…

Regardless of the source of inflation, it is a serious concern for Chinese officials. Chinese history shows that periods of high inflation are associated with social, economic, and political unrest - all things that the central planners in…

Felix Zulauf sees problems ahead because of private sector debt. Expansionary fiscal policy and deficit spending have allowed the real economy to cope while expansionary monetary policy has helped asset prices. Zulauf sees a pause in this…

As a result of the two great wars in the 20th century, the UK’s national debt soared such that by the end of World War II, public net debt was well over 200% of GDP.

Japan is set to release a slew of economic data on July 1. Of these the jobless rate is probably the least important. It is lagging indicator, though softness in the job-to-applicant ratio would warn of no quick improvement. On the other…

In China, the persistence of inflation pressure has brought “shadow banking” into a topic of hot debate recently. According to a study issued by the People's Bank of China in 2010, non-banking sector lending has expanded to 63.3 trillion…

I have decided to single Klaus Baader out for special treatment here because he conveniently brings together, in a clear and succinct fashion, a number of arguments which are widely accepted and used by both analysts and policy makers about…

This is in line with the weak data we have seen out of the US in recent weeks. I expect Q2 growth estimates to continue to decline as the data come in.

The last time the curve was this flat was during the panic in 2008. So I am still concerned that the potential for a more abrupt slowing exists. So far growth remains robust.

Point for point, I agree with the commentary from Felix Zulauf in this week’s Barron’s mid-year roundtable discussion. For long-time Credit Writedowns readers, you will recognize almost every one of these points from previous posts. It is…