inflation

As labour costs in China rise, economists are beginning to think about replacing labour with capital, something we have already seen as a major factor in suppressing wage gains in developed economies. This is also in line with what…

Below are two charts from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The first shows the US Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers from 1913 through March. The second shows the same data from 1990. The US has generally had a positive…

The latest figures from the US show that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in March, whilst the core personal consumption expenditure price index rose only 0.1%. This column explains the roles of these competing measures and argues that US…

Recent data suggest we are at the point where energy prices are creating demand destruction. Economic growth has slowed to below 2.% in the US. Further, ISM data suggest that companies are at the breaking point in their ability to absorb…

There are essentially three reasons why I think oil prices will go through a rather dramatic correction over the next several years: 1. Many investors who, in recent years, have added commodities to their portfolios as a hedge will…

Sterling is falling against the US dollar this morning after the April manufacturing PMI has come in weaker than expected at 54.6, the lowest in seven months. Inflation is the third highest since the data was first collected in 1999.

The April 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business came out today and confirmed the slight downward path we have seen since February. Mind you, 60.4% is still a very robust reading. Nevertheless, I still believe the manufacturing sector's…

Austrians and MMTers should be on the same side. After all, both camps understand the relationship between money and credit, and both understand the full ramifications of having fiat money. They should be on the same side arguing against…

The Turkish lira is under pressure today, and is also due to some market concerns with central bank credibility. Like in Brazil, Turkey macroprudential policies simply have not worked.

You've probably heard the term "smart money" used by various pundits, a reference to those investors and institutions that are consistently better at making money than the uninformed masses. Which begs the question: are you one of them?…