Forecasts

Marshall Auerback here. This will be short, but I felt compelled to post with my views on China. There was clearly a bubble in exports in the past four years, with exports serving to cover capital inflow (overinvoicing must have been a…

I am going to post a BBC article here that gives an anecdote about western Canada and how the boom in oil and commodities is causing economic problems there. Make of it what you will, but my bottom line is that Canada is neither immune from…

Stephanie Pomboy is an economist who specializes in macroeconomic forecasting and their implications for investors and she has some very bad news for those looking for a quick recovery: it's not going to happen. In Barron's latest issue,…

This is the absurd thinking of economists. Australia has a 40% chance of recession next year. What does that even mean? If you asked me, I would say the chances of recession in Australia are 100%. You have a slowing property market,…

Despite the plethora of data that has come out recently, one thing that has occasioned very little comment is the outlook for US exports. Exports are generally not a big factor in the subset of companies involved in the ISM survey, but the…