Forecasts

This comes via the ECRI website: A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The…

The following is an excerpt from John Hussman's latest Weekly Market Commentary. I noted last week that we are closing in on a syndrome of indications that has always and only appeared during or immediately prior to recessions. At present,…

Meredith Whitney was a guest host on CNBC at 8AM ET talking about an anticipated housing double dip. The videos are below. A few comments first.  Whitney was late to the recovery party in 2009 in my view. But I found the recent Rip…

In looking back on the efficacy of stimulus in the United States, Ezra Klein has a few thoughts in the Washington Post's "You've seen the stimulus. Now, meet the anti-stimulus." A multiple choice question for you: Did the…

Growth in the ECRI weekly leading index fell further into negative territory. The growth rate for the week of June 11 weakened to -5.7%, down from -3.7% in the previous week, which had been the first negative reading in almost a…

David Rosenberg is out with a good post that takes on the double dip theme that everyone is talking about.  As you would expect, he has a bearish spin. To the degree you want counterfactuals, I really like what Morgan Stanley has to…

This week's review post is a bit late since I have been spending all my time watching the World Cup. Like last week, I will put the review in narrative form with links to last week's posts embedded. The numbers were OK but... I think the…

We have been watching the change in the ECRI Leading indicators as a predictor of economic activity.  I have posted a few times on this, first in April, then again last month. All along the way, it has been the rate of change in the…

Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective…

Uber-technician Louise Yamada is now warning that the secular bear market in equities is likely to be joined by one in bonds as well.  In the video below, she talks with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox about her view that bond yields are going to…