Emerging Markets

With markets now contemplating some sort of debt “re-profiling” by Greece, we thought it would be helpful to summarize the two most recent major debt restructurings by an EM borrower for some guidance on what such a move could imply for…

Brazil is reportedly imposing trade barriers on auto parts imports and a variety of other products. Imports of 27 products will reportedly have tighter licensing requirements that can take up to 60 days to approve. These are called…

A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China.

The narrative has shifted recently with regards to Greece. Greece had been portrayed by many as a small economy one tenth the size of Germany whose debt problems could be solved by throwing EU/IMF money at it. Now, Greece appears to have…

You have strong growth in emerging markets offset by weaker growth in the developed economies. Who wins this battle? For now, EM is winning and that is bullish for commodities over the near-term.

In April 1989, Mexico's external debt negotiator, Angel Gurria, asked his country's commercial bank creditors for a 55 percent haircut. This was the opening pitch of the newly created Brady Plan, which finally addressed both the debt…

Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman was on Bloomberg talking to Tom Keene and Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. rates strategy for fixed income and currencies at RBC Capital Markets, about the global markets for a good fifteen minutes today.…

Now that the Fed has confirmed it won't raise rates and the dollar is dropping, for me it means that negative real rates will continue and that the currency wars are back on. I have comments on what negative real rates mean for investors. I…

The Turkish lira is under pressure today, and is also due to some market concerns with central bank credibility. Like in Brazil, Turkey macroprudential policies simply have not worked.

Developments in EM over the past couple of weeks suggest to us that EM policy-makers are finally starting to “get it” with regards to inflation and a strong currency. This is a welcome, if somewhat tardy shift. In recent months, EM…