Emerging Markets

That's what the Economist's Big Mac Index tell us. According to this index, the Swiss Franc and the Norwegian Krone are both more than 60 percent overvalued compared to the US dollar. Much further down are Sweden with over 40% overvaluation…

I thought I would flag this video by the BBC because I think we are seeing Brazil slow along with China and India as the three largest emerging economies that people care about.

The Turkish central bank took a turn back to orthodox policy today despite leaving the benchmark 1-week repo rate unchanged at 5.75%. It dropped the language from several previous meetings about potential easing. The bank did hike the…

Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve…

Markets have been punishing countries with the weakest fundamentals, focusing on either high inflation, large current account and budget deficits, external debt loads, or a combination of these. These other vulnerability measures in the…

Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn't this go round in the US.

Despite pockets of relative outperformance, EM currencies have fared terribly this month and bring to mind parallels with the great EM sell-off of 2008-2009. While a revisiting of the 2008-2009 lows seems too aggressive right now, we are…

Not the classic trajectory and confirmation, not to mention the compressed time frame, but you’ve got to respect the price action. The macro swans are still out, so the question is are they priced? We don’t know and not willing to make a…

Market action is quiet ahead of today’s Jackson Hole speech; US Q2 GDP likely to confirm slowdown. We do not expect an announcement of next round of asset purchases; yet doubt Fed will limit tools. EM asset prices are likely to continue…