Emerging Markets

Ray Dalio spoke to Barron's in an interview that appeared in the weekly this past weekend. The themes of the conversation were the following: The world is on a dual track with emerging markets doing much better than developed…

By Win Thin Malaysia central bank surprised the markets by hiking the statutory reserve requirement 100 bp bp while leaving policy rates unchanged at 2.75%. The bank noted that “While the stance of monetary policy is expected to remain…

Oil prices are moving higher today, due largely to news about Libya and OPEC. Algerian Oil Minister said that there was no shortage in the global oil markets and that an emergency OPEC meeting is not needed now. It also appears that…

The Obama Administration is keen to get this $20 billion mortgage settlement done. The prevailing view in the Administration is that the U.S. is in a fragile but sustainable recovery. With emerging markets leading the economic recovery and…

The financial climate has changed radically from when Norway’s Oil Fund was established in 1990. Norway has built up its savings since then by selling enormous quantities of oil and gas, and employing many thousands of workers. By…

Mexico central bank kept rates steady at 4.5% today, as expected. However, it tilted a little more to the hawkish side and supports our view that tightening is likely to start in Q4 11 and not Q1 12 as market is pricing in. Central bank…

The last time Ray Dalio conducted a major interview, the global economy seemed to be headed toward a major depression. This was in February 2009 when Barron's had a conversation with Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio. For his part, Dalio…

By Win Thin Korea February inflation data came in much higher than expected, and supports our view that a rate hike on March 10 is a done deal. The central bank kept rates steady February 11 after a 4-2 vote in favor of a 25 bp rate hike…

By Win Thin Russia central bank First Deputy Chairman Ulyukayev confirmed that it has widened the so-called “floating corridor” for the ruble basket to 32.45-37.45 vs. 32.95-36.95.  The band is now 5 rubles wide, and continues a slow…

Here's a morning note from UBS' Andy Lees in London on core inflation that made me think. Andy writes: Opinion – By focussing on core inflation rather than headline inflation, central banks are making a major policy mistake. Because…