Economic Data

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March increased to 53.4 from 52.4 in February, beating expectations of 53. It’s the 32nd consecutive month that the index has been at least 50.

The German data is still looking rather weak. I saw some numbers out of Germany that showed business confidence was rising. I don't know why.

The US dollar is marginally softer as North American players return to their posts. The better-than-expected official Chinese manufacturing PMI (53.1 from 51.0 in Feb and consensus for 50.5) saw steeper losses in the greenback, but the…

Paul Krugman’s claim that those who argue banks play an essential role in macroeconomics are “Banking Mystics” has a natural riposte: Neoclassical economists like Krugman who believe that capitalism can be modelled without either money or…

Last August, the Fed went for what I call "rate easing". If the economy weakens this year what will it do? I am not convinced it will be quantitative easing. In general, I think the Fed, while looking to support the growth side of its dual…

Sweden reported stronger business and manufacturing confidence numbers earlier this week, but the Feb retail sales report was a more significant catalyst. There are four new developments from Norway today. Individually and collectively,…

The forecasting proficiency of central bankers is a topical issue. At least, a friend asked if I could help with a list of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's predictions. The list stops in 2008, although he has been no more accurate…

A growing number of indicators suggest that the market is running out of steam. Equities have been in a temporary sweet spot where investors have been factoring in a self-sustaining U.S. economic recovery while also anticipating the…

The focus now ahead of the weekend is three-fold. First, Spain is set to unveil its 2012 budget. Full details will not be available until it is presented to parliament next Tuesday. However, the overall savings is what investors are most…

Alan Holmes wrote in 1969 that "in the real world, banks extend credit, creating deposits in the process, and look for the reserves later." Holmes would turn in his grave at Krugman’s naïve assertion, half a century later, that banks need…