Economic Data

The market lacks conviction after shrugging off the disappointing European flash PMIs last week. Even though Italian and Spanish bonds are firmer today, outperforming Germany, we detect a deterioration of conditions in Europe and are…

Rich nations worldwide have a problem with debt. In the past, such problems have been dealt with by several tactics, including “financial repression”. This column explains how the tactic works and documents its resurgence in the wake of the…

The daily links and commentary is a bronze-level post. Quick thoughts: This past week made it abundantly that Europe is slowing fairly dramatically. A number of countries have entered recession. I have been saying since October that Europe…

This daily commentary is a bronze level post. Today, my comments go to warning signs in the economic data about the global economy slowing down. Lots of links on this topic as well.

The shockingly weak euro zone flash PMI, especially the sub-50 reading for German manufacturing, is the main focus today. New orders have been weak and the Bloomberg consensus does expect the euro zone economy to contract not only in Q1 but…

So far, we must give Chinese authorities the benefit of the doubt and it is almost certain that they will now turn from a focus on inflation to a focus on growth. This is particularly the case as inflation has come down significantly in…

The theme of the day is one of economic weakness. New Zealand GDP (0.3% q/q vs. 0.7% prev), HSBC China PMI (48.1 vs. 49.6 prev), euro zone PMI composite (48.7 vs. 49.3 prev), and UK retail sales (-0.8% m/m vs. 0.6% prev ex-auto fuel) all…

Exports are still falling on a year-over-year basis, but at a slower pace. Imports are still rising, but here too the pace is slowing. The swing into trade deficit for Japan happened from both sides. Exports were squeezed by the…

The dollar is broadly higher today, and reflects a Turnaround Tuesday from the previous two days of dollar weakness. Italy's Monti has won well-deserved praise since replacing Berlusconi, but his most challenging test begins in earnest…

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment. These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase.