Economic Data

Perceptions have certainly changed a lot in the last few months. As recently as three years ago there were so few analysts who were skeptical about the sustainability of Chinese growth that we rarely disagreed among ourselves. Now, however,…

Scott Barber of Reuters shows us with the chart below that over the last 30 years bad debt in Spain has tracked unemployment and moved inversely with GDP growth. The higher the percentage of doubtful loans is, the lower GDP growth and the…

The latest data out of Argentina are just one month's data. But the trend is clear and it is alarming: economic growth is slowing dramatically in Argentina. Three articles in Argentine dailies point out the nexus of issues developing around…

I would submit then that the problem is the debt. This is true right across the developed economies. Until the debt is reduced, global growth will be slow and that makes economies susceptible to recession. As much as the President wants to…

The link I want to highlight today is on the relationship between the slowdown in growth globally and US multinational earnings.

The US employment report was simply terrible. Adding insult to injury the April was revised lower as well. The dollar initially firmed, but as participants consider the risks of QE3, the upside momentum stalled.

The economic data today from a number of different corners has been poor. In Asia, Europe and the US, manufacturing data point to continued slowdown. In the US, weak jobs numbers do as well. It has been clear for some time that growth was…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…

John Hussman's latest weekly letter contained a very nice chart on the trend for GDP growth in the largest developed economies. The data show a high degree of correlation over the past ten years.

Here's a chart via Bloomberg that gives the overall picture. The data are poor in all regions including Germany and France. Markit, which collects the data, says that the latest PMIs are consistent with GDP in Europe contracting 0.5% this…