Economic Data

The information is as stunning as it is counter-intuitive: federal spending has gone up less under President Obama than any president since Eisenhower.

Note: Before I begin today's summary, I should note that my schedule will be very spotty over the next three weeks as I am on a working vacation. That means I will not be at work but I will be posting to the blog from time to time. I also…

We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago. Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We…

Germany had a relatively small trade surplus in the early 1990s. But after the euro was formed, the surplus vaulted higher. The clear implication is that Germany's export sector benefitted hugely from the introduction of the euro.

The economy remains in solid shape, with exports, IP, retail sales all holding up well despite the sharper US slowdown. GDP rose 4.6% y/y in Q1, and is tracking at a similar rate for Q2. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 in June from 54.3 in…

The Empire State Manufacturing numbers showed greater growth for both production and employment than in the previous survey. These are the kind of numbers that are supportive of recovery. Nevertheless, the peak in disposable personal income…

Just to put some meat on the bones around the cyclical downturn turning into recession, the personal income data paint a negative picture absent debt accumulation. What we see in recessions is that personal income leads the cycle and when…

Retail sales are at recessionary levels right now, having dropped for a third consecutive month. I need to flag the inventories data that came out this morning in the US as the only thing between us and outright recession.

The June retail sales report was simply dismal. Not only did sales decline by 0.5% in June rather than rise 0.2% as the consensus expected, but the April data were revised. The measure used for GDP calculations, excludes gasoline, auto…

Most of the links are about Europe as usual but I think the breadth of news today is good. I would like to highlight the conflicting economy stories out there. While Europe remains mired in recession, the rest of the world is still…