Economic Data

Despite the grandiose title of this post, I intend to keep my comments brief. Having had a few days to digest the news without having to write, I come back somewhat more optimistic about the European economy. I wouldn't call myself a bull…

We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign…

By Sober Look Rumors have been circulating for some time in the media that China is considering scrapping the one-child policy that was launched back in 1979. But the nation's official paper suggested last week that although plans to…

The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar…

Three articles in this Wednesday and Thursday's Wall Street Journal highlighted that data point to a continued cyclical recovery despite a lot of doom and gloom from all sides. Let me post extracts from those articles I would like to…

The serious debate has not been about whether or not China’s collapse is imminent. The disagreement was whether or not investment misallocation and the repression of household income growth were fundamental to the Chinese growth model. The…

Economists and the markets have been cheering the jump in housing prices and improving construction statistics. But for many Americans rising demand and higher house prices bring more bad news.

I thought this chart was a good one. It shows how quickly house prices have recovered in a number of markets. WHile DC and LA are the areas where the Case-Shiller index is at its highest, over the last year, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix and…

I don't put a lot of stock into economic sentiment surveys but the time series of this particular survey, the European sentiment indicator caught my eye. It suggests a recovery in Europe is almost here.