Economic Data

The U.S. Job Situation Summary was released this morning at 830EDT and the headline number of 169,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls was just below consensus. Moreover, the unemployment rate dipped to 7.3%. Nonetheless, the reaction to the…

As analysts and official entities like the World Bank continue to downgrade their forecasts for medium-term growth in China, I have been asked increasingly often for the reasons I believe that 3-4% average annual growth rates is likely to…

Bank Indonesia has fallen far behind the curve in its currency management tactics. After fairly steady intervention kept USD/IDR trading near the 10,000 area from May through early August, the authorities have been allowing the pair to move…

In spite of some positive economic signals out of the Eurozone, the area continues to struggle with credit growth. The latest loan growth measures still look quite bleak. We may however be seeing the first signs of the bottoming out of…

In a fashion similar to what became known as the "Asian Contagion" in the late 90s, the current stress in emerging economies has been spreading. One of the nations to experience financial stress recently has been Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s…

The gain in equity prices is now outpacing profits at a rate not see since the heady dot-com days. In fact, on a GAAP accounting basis, profits have been falling. I believe this creates a dangerous situation in view of rising interest rates…

One often hears the refrain "the market is not the economy", but what does that really mean? I am going to explain it in my terms here in the context of the global reflation trade - EM meltdown paradox.

I am alarmed at how quickly economic and market volatility has spread throughout the emerging markets. However, I remain positive about the big picture global macro outlook because recent data show that Europe, the US and now China are…

In many different emerging markets, the economy has unexpectedly weakened. We are seeing downturns everywhere from Mexico and Brazil in Latin America to Indonesia, India and Thailand in Asia. At this point there is no common thread on why…

The argument that China is forcefully urbanizing, and that this urbanization will guarantee growth rates above 7-8% for many more years, is almost sheer nonsense. Urbanization is a cost, and if China borrows to fund this cost, its debt will…