Economic Data

The recent downturns in consumer confidence and spending are likely being exacerbated by the controversy in Washington; but it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and…

Summary: I expect the debt ceiling impasse to be overcome today as a result of a Senate-brokered deal. With this manufactured crisis out of the way, we can concentrate on earnings and on the economy. While US growth is on track, I expect…

Summary: Recently, Niall Ferguson reminded us of the eurozone pessimism of 2011 and 2012 in a recent polemic against Paul Krugman. Without getting into the Krugman-Ferguson war, I want to hone in on this subject because I think it tells us…

Right now, US jobless claims are very low by recent historical standards. I believe this represents a peak for growth in this business cycle. But there are almost certainly seasonal adjustment problems with this data series. Despite…

The German election and the US debt ceiling crisis are the two political events dominating the economic headlines - and for good reason; these two events could have potentially big consequences on the regional and global economy. In the…

Today, I am not going to write about a specific topic but rather put together some random thoughts on the direction of the global economy. Next week, I will have some big things to say about the Fed and it's upcoming meeting. So I thought…

Despite all the talk of recovery in Europe, the data suggest that the improvement in Europe is uneven at best now. The core has moved into a cyclical upturn but a lot of work remains in places like Italy and Greece. Today's data points…

The recent IMF proposals to help stimulate growth and job creation in Spain at least deserve serious consideration. What the IMF are saying is that if you leave the situation as it is then growth will not be sufficient to make any…

The latest data seem to suggest that China has so far been able to elude the severe economic headwinds faced by other emerging economies. Signs of stability have been around for a few weeks, but the first set of direct evidence came from…

We update our views on the main big picture drives for financial market: (1) Fed tapering (2) The stabilization of the Chinese economy (3) The cyclical recovery in Europe (4) The increase in Japanese purchases of foreign bonds