Economic Data

I want to pick up where I left off yesterday and highlight the growth dichotomy between Euroland on the one hand and the U.S. and the U.K. on the other. Yesterday I wrote that the risk is to the upside in the U.S. (and the U.K.) if…

The latest data out of Europe shows the economy in the euro zone continuing to expand and suggests that we are probably in a technical recovery. In Europe, however, the threat to recovery is to the downside, whereas in the U.S. the main…

When the working age population grows faster than the broad population, demographics become a tailwind as far as economic growth is concerned. Hence, what is likely to become a significant headwind for advanced economies in terms of…

The US is now on track to reach only 1.6% real GDP growth for 2013 - in spite of the extraordinary amount of central bank stimulus. The sad part about this weakness is that to some extent it has been self-inflicted. Policy uncertainty,…

It is not US fundamentals, but global fundamentals that will determine the Fed's ability to taper. If the Fed tapers when the global economy is already in the doldrums, as it is at the moment, the recessionary rebound to the US economy…

During the government shutdown, the data for a variety of economic reports were halted. Therefore, I looked at alternative, private sector, data to estimate the government reports. One such model used the historical differential between…

The PMI survey shows the first fall in manufacturing output in the US since September 2009. Eurozone PMIs are moving in the other direction.

Summary: Pippa Malmgren discusses the eurozone with Bloomberg below, calling attention to the diverging interests within the eurozone as a critical factor adding stress despite the relative calm we have witnessed in markets of late. Her…

With Spain posting its first gains in GDP in over two years, every media outlet I have seen is trumpeting this as the end of the eurozone recession. I called it early, yes. However, one quarter’s GDP growth does not make recovery. Let’s…

Long-term interest rates may have bottomed several months ago, but rate will remain low for several more months. For good reason, many observers and investors are concerned that the dysfunctional political system in the US will renew the…