Economic Data

I believe, as many economic analysts do, that global growth is accelerating. Backing that up, two days ago I looked at four economies where growth has been good. But, yesterday, I looked at four economies where growth has been poor and big…

In spite of some relatively strong economic data coming out of the US, risks to near-term growth remain. One of those risks comes from higher than expected inventory build. We saw this come through in the latest GDP numbers.

The data on the global economy continue to improve. The US expansion has continued, Europe is exiting recession and China’s growth his defying expectations of a slowdown. All of this portends well for 2014. Part one of the data and analysis…

Those inclined to the Fed tapering in December seem myopic. The employment was not the only economic report that was released before the weekend. The US also reported that the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the deflator for core…

I have spent some time this past weekend reading what investment manager Hugh Hendry has had to say about why he has turned bullish. And the clear takeaways are twofold. First, it is very difficult to ‘fight the Fed’ when it wants growth.…

China is not the first country to have experienced a long period of miraculous growth. But the most difficult part of growth miracles has not been the growth miracle itself but rather the subsequent adjustment.

Today is the day when the much anticipated jobs report was released. And the data were good. The jobs report was not the big news in my view, however, because at the same time we saw the jobs numbers we also got personal income numbers -…

The US November jobs data are generally stronger than expected. The closure of the government and the re-opening suggests a two month average offers a more accurate read, which as we noted, is fairly steady job growth in the US. There are…

I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…

The news flow over the Thanksgiving weekend and starting this week has been positive. I believe the data support continued global recovery, even in Europe where the data have been the weakest as the latest batch of economic data show…