EM Preview for the week ahead
Updates of most important data flow in the week ahead for 1 Jul 2013
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Economic Data
Euro Zone June Manufacturing PMI Rises to 16-Month High of 48.8, EU rejects earthquake repair
Still contracting but at a reduced pace. Germany a bit worse and other up a bit may show the squeeze has caused a bit of a shift from Germany to other members as the pie continues to shrink?In any case, a reduced pace of deterioration does…
What has changed in EM: China, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Czech
The “lesson” is over in China. Brazil is in flux and there is some room to be optimistic. Indonesia is finally increasing subsidized fuel prices. The Turkish central bank is stepping up even more. The Czech National Bank is moving closer…
India: Let the Rupee fall and enter the currency wars
In the last few days the USD/INR exchange rate exceeded the psychologically important level of 60 for the first time in history. Foreign investors are panicking, as capital leaves emerging markets.
The Czech Economy That Didn’t Bounce?
Czech voters are deeply dissatisfied and in a highly skeptical mood, since following seven quarters without growth the country’s economy is evidently stuck in the doldrums. The worst part is things look highly unlikely to improve anytime…
Fed’s Lacker: Growth Sluggish, Fine with Tapering
In the wake of the selloff in stocks and bonds after the Fed laid out its timetable for tapering, markets are looking to see whether they have misread the Fed. Fed Presidents Bullard and Kocherlakota have spoken and both were pretty dovish.…
New warning signs for China’s economy
One of the key risks of course is the size and health of the shadow banking system. Fitch in particular has been ringing some alarm bells with respect to China's private credit growth.
The biggest worry in the global economy now is emerging markets, particularly China
Last week I wrote about the asset-price fuelled boom fading. Back then the biggest worry for the market was Japan and Abenomics. However, in reality the biggest concern is emerging markets. I gave you some reasons why last week. Here are a…
China: How much capital investment is optimal?
The real challenges for China, if you believe in the social capital constraint, are not about maintaining high rates of growth in the short term but rather of raising the levels of social capital in China. This is much more difficult and…
Full analysis: The Fed will not raise rates until at least mid-2015
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee met today. As expected, the Fed Funds rate stayed at zero percent. Most Fed watchers, however, wanted more clarity on the Fed's quantitative easing timetable, which the Fed laid out clearly. But…