credit

Based on the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis here is a single chart that shows credit growth in the US is continuing to decline while the Fed's balance sheet is expanding.

The X-axis is the change in the spot currencies against the dollar since late May. The Y-axis is the change in the local 5-year debt. It is a useful way to conceptualize what has happened from a total return perspective. Korea, Czech,…

In spite of some positive economic signals out of the Eurozone, the area continues to struggle with credit growth. The latest loan growth measures still look quite bleak. We may however be seeing the first signs of the bottoming out of…

By Sober Look The US Congress is nearing a compromise on the issue of student loan interest rates. Apparently loan rates will be changed from fixed to floating with an overall cap (see story). While rates are important, there is a much…

We learned today that China's trade volume unexpectedly 3.1% year-on-year in June with both imports and exports down. This unexpectedly weak data point highlights the risk of growth deceleration in emerging markets generally and China…

I have been fairly sanguine about some of the market turbulence in 2013. From the fiscal cliff to the sequester to the Japan rate rise to the Fed tapering, I haven't seen a trigger for wholesale risk repricing. I want to flag student loans…

There are perhaps more myths about QE than almost any other monetary policy instrument. Here are five of the most pernicious QE myths.

One of the key risks of course is the size and health of the shadow banking system. Fitch in particular has been ringing some alarm bells with respect to China's private credit growth.

In spite of the divergence in the chart, the "loans create deposits" axiom still stands - deposits are still created through bank credit. Two key developments explain much of this divergence without violating these principles.

Europe has been postponing the recapitalisation of its banking sector. This column argues that it has been doing so for far too long. Without such a recapitalisation, the danger is that economic stagnation will continue for a long period,…