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Unless serious action is taken, Europe in particular (but the U.S. is not far behind) is at risk of falling into a very deep hole from which it may be extraordinarily difficult to dig itself out of. Once in, it will prove ever so hard to…

Japan’s deflation problem is overdetermined – there are multiple causes at work, any one of which could account for the observed phenomenon. Those who have been following the debate can simply choose their favourite – balance sheet…

There are two potential issues with the current re-leveraging cycle. First, the increase in the latest report, outside of real estate related mortgages as shown in the chart below, was primarily driven by increases in student and auto loan…

Loan growth rate in the US, while better than in the Eurozone, remains on a downward path. The latest figures suggest that loans are increasing at less than 2%, while deposits continue to grow at 6-7% per year.

My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…

2014 is a transition year for the United States because 2013 was the breakout year for growth. In the third and fourth quarters of 2013, US real GDP statistics showed annualized growth of 4.1 and 3.2% respectively. Official statistics also…

Below are seven recent developments in Venezuela's economy

It may be something symbolic such as a small rate cut or possibly a more substantial move such as a new LTRO program, but the European Central Bank will be forced to loosen monetary policy in the near future.

I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might…

We appear to be on the cusp of a more serious crisis in Argentina, as things are moving from bad to worse. Spot ARS has dropped as much as 20% earlier today, while the implied “blue chip” FX rate has fallen nearly 10% over the past two…