China

The upward momentum for US stocks has broken. The S&P 500 closed below it's 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2016. Chief among the factors causing alarm was China's decision to retaliate against US tariffs. More…

First, the recent post-Facebook scandal market volatility has seen Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google follow Facebook down. Second, Donald Trump is acting more boldly and more aggressively now on his economic agenda, on trade and on foreign…

While the pundits are talking trade wars, Chinese officials are taking the latest US provocations in stride. China's emergence on the world stage was always going to be disruptive. China is not defenseless in a trade war, but many…

Links on the Chinese reaction to tariffs, economic problems in Italy, the dangers of monetary offset for shares, and the importance of voter turnout for the midterm US elections.

Right before the inauguration, US President Trump tried to use Taiwan for negotiating leverage against China. This proved a non-starter. Trump is now unchained from moderating influences. So, the 'Taiwan Card' is back on the table.…

If China wants to accumulate reserves, it will have to buy US Treasuries, even if not every month. Japanese institutional investors are thought to be attracted by the high yields available in the US Treasury market.  But, the wider…

Until we see the US economy slowing, we should expect rates to rise. And if inflation starts to rise, rates will rise further still.

Claims that moves by central banks in China, Japan and Europe are dominating the US Treasury market are flawed because the 'model' used to make those claims is flawed.

Tonight US President Donald Trump is due to give his first state of the union address. From a foreign policy perspective, the big item on the table is Russia. But from an economic perspective, the country we meed to be thinking about is…

A few weeks ago I was writing about a likely pivot away from China toward Russia in the Trump administration. And my conclusion was that a violent pivot created a lot of unknown unknowns - to use a Rumsfeld phrase. It is the uncertainty and…