China

My own view is that getting the economics makes macro hard is problem number one. But just as big a problem is that macro investing is supposed to be contrarian. And contrarian bets work best when the world is in a panic and volatility is…

China's membership in the WTO has been a disaster for Western manufacturing, employment and wages.

North Korea is sometimes (hyperbolically) referred to as a Chinese client state. And this seems to be the perception that Trump has developed as well.

Normally, we think of trade as a story of spendthrift nations 'living beyond their means' and saver nations being productive. In this view, savers are virtuous and spenders are sinful. And the easiest way to see who the saints and sinners…

When China builds a trade surplus, it accumulates dollars. And it has to do something with those dollars. That means its purchase of US dollar assets is non-discretionary unless it revalues its currency.

Links on trade, Eastern European democracy, when cops become robbers, the coming hurricane season and much more

China's debt build-up has provoked increasing concern amongst Beijing’s policy makers. The resultant excess capacity exports deflation to the rest of the world. This creates pressures for China’s competitors which could engender a tougher…

Links on Apple, Amazon, the Postal Service, Puerto Rico and more.

There are growing signs that a trade war is possible, and that the multilateral trading system may not be able to prevent it. This column asks what would happen with tariffs around the world if countries were to move from cooperative tariff…

China has retaliated to US duties with tariffs on $50 billion of US goods. An all-out trade war is a distinct possibility.