China

So far, we must give Chinese authorities the benefit of the doubt and it is almost certain that they will now turn from a focus on inflation to a focus on growth. This is particularly the case as inflation has come down significantly in…

The theme of the day is one of economic weakness. New Zealand GDP (0.3% q/q vs. 0.7% prev), HSBC China PMI (48.1 vs. 49.6 prev), euro zone PMI composite (48.7 vs. 49.3 prev), and UK retail sales (-0.8% m/m vs. 0.6% prev ex-auto fuel) all…

In this issue of the newsletter I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s…

This daily commentary is a bronze level members-only post. I saw a number of commentaries this past weekend and late in the week that were gloomier than one would have expected. In the US, consumer credit is expanding as are jobs and most…

Michael Pettis predicts a hard landing in China. How much will growth slow? The World Bank report apparently doesn’t say, but the consensus has been slowly moving down towards 5-6% annual growth over the next few years. That’s better than…

The US dollar is broadly higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies amid concern that the Greek PSI will not see sufficient participation to avoid the triggering of the collective action clauses or worse. At the same…

Question for you: Which distinctly British asset class has offered the most attractive returns over the past decade? Central London property? Not even close, even if it has done rather well. UK farmland is the answer, having more than…

Revisions to the holdings of US Treasuries have set the chins wagging. The key focus is on China's holdings of Treasuries.

The promises of reform at Foxconn are the latest of many as China painfully adjusts to the inevitable social realignment that comes with a capitalist economy. What is occurring in China now happened in Europe during the transition from…