China

Liberalizing interest rates means that those sectors of the economy who have benefitted from very low lending rates – SOEs, local and municipal governments, real estate developers, and other large borrowers – are likely to find many reasons…

Comstock Partners argues that slowing growth as well as deficit and debt problems in the Eurozone, U.S., China and the emerging nations increases the odds of a deflationary global recession and a renewed down leg in the ongoing secular bear…

Perceptions have certainly changed a lot in the last few months. As recently as three years ago there were so few analysts who were skeptical about the sustainability of Chinese growth that we rarely disagreed among ourselves. Now, however,…

Not a lot of links today. One link I did want to talk about was the Barron's Roundtable Midyear Update. It's largely the same cast it has been for a few years but for the past few years, the topics have been heavily macro instead of…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…

I highly recommend the FT article on China's 1% in the links below. They bring up the capital flight problem that a Chinese hard landing might mean. I noted last April that Victor Shih gave a talk at INET on the Fragile State of China’s FX…

Yesterday I wrote about Chinese trade growth plummeting. This is having a negative impact on economic growth. The Chinese authorities get that. And so they have decided to boost demand.

In recent months, we have seen a precipitous drop in Chinese trade growth. This comes from both the export and the import side. What's happening? A large part of it is wages. As I indicated two years ago in a post on the Lewis Turning…

The latest data out of China will give those expecting a soft landing pause about China's economic situation. While inflation has come down somewhat of late, so too have industrial output and capital investment. This is creating EM feedback…