China

By Michael Pettis I recently “debated” twice with senior Chinese officials on the future prospects for China. In both cases they made the argument that Chinese growth rates were going to rise in the next few years and that the current deep…

This is the first of a few daily links posts. Here I want to concentrate on the economy in light of the manufacturing data released earlier today. I was on BNN today for the headline show at 12:30 and I said pretty much the same thing I…

By Marc Chandler The US dollar is going into month and quarter end on a soft note.  The greenback had been generally firm against most of the major foreign currencies, but the Japanese yen, since around mid-month, but the news stream…

By Michael Pettis Three weeks ago the Wall Street Journal published my OpEd piece about concern that China may try to make the rebalancing process less painful by allowing the RMB to depreciate. In the piece I argue that this isn’t as…

By Sober Look Anecdotal evidence suggests that increasing numbers of western expats are beginning to leave China. A recent article that has gone viral in the expat community in China called "Why I’m leaving the country I loved" describes…

By Michael Pettis For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we…

By Sober Look Here are some of this morning's key economic news coming out of China. Given that China has been the largest component of the global GDP growth, the situation is worth monitoring closely. 1. China's stock market hit a new…

By Michael Pettis In the last issue of my newsletter much of the first half was dedicated to a discussion of recent events in Spain and Italy and why they reinforce the argument that several countries will be forced to leave the euro and…

By Sober Look As yesterday's flash PMI numbers show, the declines in iron ore prices (discussed here) were indeed signaling an ongoing broad based slowdown in China's economy. Bloomberg: - China’s manufacturing may be contracting at a…

By Sober Look With all the conflicting economic indicators coming out of China, it is difficult to gauge whether economic growth has stabilized after recent declines. One indicator that clearly points to potential ongoing slowdown in…