China

Daily Comments for 15 Jul 2013

We learned today that China's trade volume unexpectedly 3.1% year-on-year in June with both imports and exports down. This unexpectedly weak data point highlights the risk of growth deceleration in emerging markets generally and China…

The sharp jump in China's short-term rates has been nearly reversed. Repo rates are approaching their longer-term averages, with the PBoC coming to its senses and addressing the liquidity squeeze.

Updates of most important data flow in the week ahead for 1 Jul 2013

The “lesson” is over in China. Brazil is in flux and there is some room to be optimistic. Indonesia is finally increasing subsidized fuel prices. The Turkish central bank is stepping up even more. The Czech National Bank is moving closer…

By Win Thin and Ilan Solot from yesterday What has changed? In short, pretty much everything. The FOMC meeting and the market reaction has fed into a deeper re-pricing of assets globally. The selloff in the EM space has been…

By Marc Chandler  The dollar is the king of castle, extending yesterday's post-Fed rally across the board. Emerging market currencies have been particularly hard hit and we note that the Turkish lira is at new record lows.  Asset markets…

One of the key risks of course is the size and health of the shadow banking system. Fitch in particular has been ringing some alarm bells with respect to China's private credit growth.

The real challenges for China, if you believe in the social capital constraint, are not about maintaining high rates of growth in the short term but rather of raising the levels of social capital in China. This is much more difficult and…

This is what has changed in the EM space in, our view. 1) Brazil is stepping up its defences against market volatility. 2) Signs that China is looking for more (and better) sources of external funding sources is mounting. 3) Turkish…