China

Reports indicate strong Bitcoin interest in China. BTC, the China-based Bitcoin exchange accounts (trading a third of all Bitcoin transactions, while China may account to close to half of the daily turnover, according to some internet…

There are four main forces shaping the immediate investment climate and these remain essential unchanged: 1) Fed tapering not expected until late Q1 14. 2) ECB will likely take additional action to ease financial conditions and…

Five or six years ago, a few skeptics first started pointing out that the credit dynamics underlying Chinese growth was creating an unsustainable increase in debt. This, they warned, would ultimately undermine the banking system and cause…

It is still too early for all of these predictions either to have materialized or to have failed, but I thought it might be useful to review them to see whether or not they have been reasonably accurate in describing unfolding events and,…

The first seven trading days of September have offered all of these markets some much needed breathing space with EM currencies, bond and equity markets all doing considerably better. It is thus tempting to conclude that this was just…

The latest data seem to suggest that China has so far been able to elude the severe economic headwinds faced by other emerging economies. Signs of stability have been around for a few weeks, but the first set of direct evidence came from…

We update our views on the main big picture drives for financial market: (1) Fed tapering (2) The stabilization of the Chinese economy (3) The cyclical recovery in Europe (4) The increase in Japanese purchases of foreign bonds

As analysts and official entities like the World Bank continue to downgrade their forecasts for medium-term growth in China, I have been asked increasingly often for the reasons I believe that 3-4% average annual growth rates is likely to…

The problem in a nutshell is that the U.S. is the world's reserve currency. And so, other countries are forced to adhere to Fed dictates in a liquidity crisis because everyone is hoarding dollars, trying to maintain their supply of…

I am alarmed at how quickly economic and market volatility has spread throughout the emerging markets. However, I remain positive about the big picture global macro outlook because recent data show that Europe, the US and now China are…