China

If you look at the last two posts on this site from Marc Chandler and from Sober Look the connection between Fed tapering and money flows is clear. Hot money is flowing out of emerging markets and into Europe.

The argument that China is forcefully urbanizing, and that this urbanization will guarantee growth rates above 7-8% for many more years, is almost sheer nonsense. Urbanization is a cost, and if China borrows to fund this cost, its debt will…

We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign…

By Sober Look Rumors have been circulating for some time in the media that China is considering scrapping the one-child policy that was launched back in 1979. But the nation's official paper suggested last week that although plans to…

The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar…

Three articles in this Wednesday and Thursday's Wall Street Journal highlighted that data point to a continued cyclical recovery despite a lot of doom and gloom from all sides. Let me post extracts from those articles I would like to…

The serious debate has not been about whether or not China’s collapse is imminent. The disagreement was whether or not investment misallocation and the repression of household income growth were fundamental to the Chinese growth model. The…

Because growth will consistently underperform expectations as China rebalances, many members of the Chinese policymaking elite, and their effective allies among the shrinking but still large contingent of China-bulls, will increasingly…

The widely followed Markit PMI report of China's manufacturing for July was disappointing, coming in at an 11 months low.