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Why should the Trump Administration issue 50-year bonds?
As the Trump economic team comes together, their economic vision is also coming together. In the last post, I laid out some overarching themes I am seeing from them on the hopes that reducing taxes and regulation will increase productive…
Supply-side economics likely to dominate Trump’s economic agenda
Donald Trump’s vision of economics is becoming clear as he makes his cabinet picks. In particular, his picks of Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary and Larry Kudlow as probable Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors point to a more…
The dollar bull market will eventually break something
With the fed having raised interest rates for the second time in ten years, in an environment in which US growth looks pretty good, we should expect more hikes to come. The question is whether the economy can withstand the hikes and what…
Upbeat about the near-term, dubious on the longer-term
This is a quick post about the US economy. To put it simply, I am upbeat about what the near-term holds for the US economy. I have lots of doubts about the longer term. But whereas I might have led with the doubts earlier in the year, as…
A short squeeze in government bonds?
This summer – when stock markets across the globe began to rally after their post-Brexit collapse, bond markets put in a top. US 10-year yields bottomed at 1.35% on July 8th. And in the time since, they have zoomed to over 2.5%. In short,…
Tuning out political hysteria in the US
Ever since Donald Trump unexpectedly won the US presidential election, there has been an unending stream of anti-Trump tirades in the media. The emotions creating this wave of criticism make it difficult to have a reality-based view of the…
In defense of the Fed’s rate hike campaign
Thought I have been on recession watch for nearly all of 2016, I want to write this post as a reminder that there are upside scenarios for the US and global economy. The Federal Reserve looked forward and felt it could tighten into a…
China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers
China’s success will depend on the extent to which Beijing in 2016 is able to centralize power, to begin to sell off government assets (probably local and provincial, and not central, government assets), to rein in credit growth, and to…
The unwinding of the carry trade of the British pound sterling
Between the first quarter of 2013 and the end of 2015, London property prices rose rapidly, the exchange rate appreciated, and the current account deficit widened. This column argues that the rise of the pound was in fact a financial…
Donald Trump and the return of Rockefeller Republicanism
With the Republicans taking both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency, the potential for Trump to reshape the party in his image is immense. The question now regarding the Trump economic platform is how much he will bend to the will…