Credit Writedowns

When the Brexit vote first happened, I indicated that I didn’t see the huge risk to the UK that others did. In fact, I thought the initial tail risks were elsewhere, like the Italian banking system. The economic risks for the UK were always…

A few weeks ago I was writing about a likely pivot away from China toward Russia in the Trump administration. And my conclusion was that a violent pivot created a lot of unknown unknowns - to use a Rumsfeld phrase. It is the uncertainty and…

If I could name three countries that will be particularly difficult for the US to deal with geopolitically, I would pick Russia, China and Turkey. The first two are obvious choices but the third is going to be equally tricky because of the…

With the Fed talking up the likelihood of three rate hikes in 2017 while other central banks are still in easing mode, the potential for a US dollar rout and a concomitant closing of the US trade deficit is pretty low. Therefore, given…

Eurobonds are one way of tying the fortunes of eurozone countries together by eliminating - or at least greatly reducing - default risk. The thinking is that if you have a common currency and free labour movement and you still don’t have…

This is a follow-up to yesterday’s post about Donald Trump and confirmation bias. But it’s going to be a different beast altogether because here’s where I am going to lay out my thinking about Trump and trade. Let me cut to the chase. I…

My narrative is going to be that Trump is a risk taker. And the conclusion I have drawn is that this risk taking will lead to big surprises — some of them negative, but some positive. Afterwards, rather than give you a bunch of confirming…

On Monday, I wrote a piece outlining how the US has pivoted away from China toward Russia. And the conclusion I drew from the circumstances was that this pivot will create a lot of geopolitical and economic uncertainty depending both on the…

This isn't going to be a thematic post on how to profit from Europe's breakup, despite the sinister title. Instead, it’s a potpourri post - a mashup of different ideas I have right now and want to run by you to organize my thinking about…

I have heard some commentators say that the concern over a strong dollar is overblown. I don't think it is. In the context of heightened tensions with China, the strength of the US dollar will be a key issue affecting Asia in particular. I…