Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Nationwide: UK house prices down 15.9% from last year
The data are in for house prices in the United Kingdom and they are not good. Prices have now fallen 18% from their peak in October 2007 according to the latest Nationwide Building Society survey. They were down a massive 2.5% in December…
Links: 2009-01-06
Every time I write a links post this year, I fear getting the year wrong and writing 2008. It is hard to believe we have a new year already. It has kicked off with a bang too. Did you see treasuries yesterday? They were bloody awful.…
The latest on Glencore
FT Alphaville, one of my favorite blog sites, has the latest on Glencore and its credit default swaps. They are exploding to the downside for firms issuing insurance against Glencore's default. Here's Alphaville's chart:
Who is Raghuram Rajan?
Raghuram Rajan is a bloody good economist, that's who he is. Rajan, who succeeded Kenneth Rogoff at the International Monetary Fund as Chief Economist, is also a prescient voice of reason on any number of different subjects. Recently,…
Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure that is 70% of GDP
You probably know that I am gearing up for some serious writedowns in Eastern Europe because I see these countries as having external imbalances which will have to be corrected as the economy softens. In previous posts, I had mentioned…
U.S. auto sales plummet: everyone down over 30%
The numbers for December are in and they are grim. 2008 was a year to forget in the auto industry. Sales plummeted around the globe as recession took hold. In the United States, every major car company saw sales fall at least 30% compared…
Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2009
As the New Year unfolds, it is time for predictions. I have done my part, giving a full account of where I see things headed in 2009 in my post "Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy" and where I want to see them headed in 2009 in…
Deutsche Bank: Loan losses will double in 2009
Given the fact that this site is called Credit Writedowns, you would expect me to take a fairly skeptical view about the growing consensus regarding a rapid recovery in 2009. I do, in large part because I understand that banks face many…
Video: Andrew Barry says stay away from treasuries
The video below is an addendum to my post on Andrew Barry's Barron's cover story piece regarding Treasury Bonds and the growing consensus to avoid them. While I agree with the consensus about Treasury bonds being a bubble, I expect the…
Links: 2009-01-05
A number of the following posts are fairly controversial and I present them not so much because I agree, but rather because the ideas presented or the news is worthy of your attention. I highly recommend the Willem Buiter piece at the end.…