Every time I write a links post this year, I fear getting the year wrong and writing 2008. It is hard to believe we have a new year already. It has kicked off with a bang too. Did you see treasuries yesterday? They were bloody awful. And it’s just as bad today. It seems everyone is bullish for a second half recovery and that’s great for stocks, but not so good for government bonds. My personal view is that this will change. However, for now, let’s savour the moment.
There is a lot of news out there and here is what I have scanned.
Happy New Year’s from the Fed – The Big Picture (This first entry is completely snarky comedy from TheStreet.com. Very funny)
Strategists See 17% S&P 500 Rise After Saying ‘Buy’ – Bloomberg.com(can you say bullish.)
Confessions of a former real estate bull CNN Money (Talk about changing your tune. David, say it ain’t so. David Lereah, the former NAR economist is now bearish on housing. He wrote “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust – And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market” at the top of the market. It gets two stars on Amazon.com now)
Are Treasuries Really in a Bubble? – EconomPic Data (A very good visual on the decline in auto sales)
Gold Falls Most in Two Weeks as Dollar Rebounds, Eroding Demand – Bloomberg.com
GE Capital to Raise $10 Billion in Sale of FDIC Notes – Bloomberg.com
Economic ‘bubbles have only begun to burst’ – Vancouver Sun
10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 – Fortune (Every city on this list is in California it seems except DC and Miami. What does that tell you?)
Ex-eBay CEO Whitman eyes run for California governor – Reuters (If you saw the previous article, then you know why she is running)
Wedgwood’s mountain of debt shatters 250 years of history – Times Online (If there s no buyer for this brand, it will be a real loss. Recessions are hard: there is always a famous brand that dies.
Gasparino Sees Tarnish for Dimon’s Image – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com
Foreclosures: Movin’ on up – Calculated Risk (This is a must see video; it shows how defaults are going Alt-A in a hurry. We should see California as the default canary in the coalmine.)
A homely parade in the currency ‘ugly’ contest – FT Alphaville (a very good article on currencies. Also note how everyone is bearish on Treasuries)
Clutching at historians – FT Alphavill
Kenneth Rogoff Interview – The Region, Minneapolis Fed (Hat Tip Mark Thoma and Yves Smith)
CRE Crash Spreading – Calculated Risk
Fed Begins Buying Agency MBS – Housing Wire
Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse – Telegraph