Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Chinese officials are not acting like there’s a trade war
While the pundits are talking trade wars, Chinese officials are taking the latest US provocations in stride. China's emergence on the world stage was always going to be disruptive. China is not defenseless in a trade war, but many…
Cleveland Fed President Mester: Flat yield curve does not signal weakness
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester has joined the chorus of Fed officials trumpeting hawkish views. Note her comments about financial stability and reloading the Fed's interest rate gun. At the margin, these variables…
The euro area’s deepening political divide
Two European elections – in Germany on 24 September 2017 and Italy on 4 March 2018 – warn that the peoples of Europe are drifting apart. Much of the recent deepening of these divisions can be traced to Europe’s single currency, the euro.…
Links: De-dollarization, top down US policy and the new Cold War
As Trade War Heats Up, Biggest Currency Whales Make Their Move - Great article. Central banks are starting to diversify away from the US dollar. Many Wall Street strategists now see the euro as a viable alternative. My view: this shift…
Links: China tariffs, Italy, monetary offset and midterm turnout
Links on the Chinese reaction to tariffs, economic problems in Italy, the dangers of monetary offset for shares, and the importance of voter turnout for the midterm US elections.
John Bolton’s appointment by Trump confirms serious geopolitical risk
Donald Trump tweeted that he has appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor. Bolton is a neo-conservative thinker with hawkish views on North Korea and Iran. His appointment is a sign that "Trump Unchained"is a change toward a more…
Facebook and the threat of cross-platform privacy leakage
Some of the best performing stocks in the US are the large Internet-centric technology stocks like Facebook. But Facebook's data breach represents a threat to them from regulators
Jerome Powell affirms Fed commitment to rate hikes through 2020
Inflation is the controlling variable from here on out. Two rate hikes are effectively off the table for 2018 as a likely outcome. Fed projections will rise to four rate increases if inflation rises. And beyond 2018, expect Fed projections…
Jeffrey Gundlach on today’s Fed meeting and bearish thoughts on stocks, equities, and Bitcoin
In his most recent interview, Jeffrey Gundlach says he sees stocks down for the year. He also outlines at what point he sees a bond bear market. Most ominously, however, he describes the Fed as being on autopilot, with this driving the…
Credit Writedowns: 10,000 Posts and counting
Credit Writedowns has now reached the magic threshold of 10,000 posts! That's about 1,000 posts a year, or a little under 3 posts a day for 10 years. I need your support to keep it going though.