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The threats to the American dream
The title of this daily post is a bit dramatic, I know. But that's what I came up with when I thought about some of the themes I intend to write about today. It's on my mind because of the news cycle and what I've been reading.
But some…
More on the stress hitting the Australian housing market
Yesterday, I connected the end of the carry trade and stress on Australian bank margins. The point was that the withdrawal of global liquidity wasn't just affecting emerging markets in our interconnected global financial system. Australia…
When will emerging markets begin to rally?
"As much as I would like to buck the bearish sentiment, I continue to see EM as an underweight, in currencies, bonds and equities."
That's how I ended the last post.
Yet, at the same time, even as crisis deepens in the emerging markets,…
Morgan Stanley: Stay short on emerging market currencies
Emerging market equities are in a bear market as of today. So, right now, everyone seems to be talking about contagion in the emerging markets. As the day began, the US dollar was posting gains against most currencies, emerging market and…
A tad more on the German refugee crisis and the reaction in Chemnitz
Back in early July, I wrote a post on the politics of the German refugee crisis. And the conclusion at that time was that Horst Seehofer was bluffing about blowing up the governing coalition. In retrospect, this proved right. But in the…
How little politics matters to the market and normalizing policy in the US and Europe
1 - How little politics matters to the market
A couple of weeks ago, I tweeted the following after Michael Cohen pleaded guilty:
For those surprised there’s no market reaction to Cohen, why should there be? It has no bearing on earnings,…
A few thoughts on xenophobia in Europe and the US
Are Trump voters racists?
Those of you who have been reading my posts for some time know that I don't believe racism is the defining element behind a rise in populism across the developed economies. I certainly believe populist politicians…
The end of the carry trade and stress on Australian bank margins
Short-term and long-term interest rates in the US have overtaken those in Australia for the first time in a number of years, with the Reserve Bank of Australia predicted to be on hold for another two years. This makes funding via US…
GDPNow at 4.7% on the back of bullish ISM manufacturing data
Quick note here to update you on some of the macro data
I continue to be bullish on the near-term US economy. As I wrote this morning, the Q2 and Q3 GDP numbers are both showing more than 4% growth. And with the ISM Manufacturing data…
How an unchanged financial system and credit stresses will prove problematic in the next year
Happy Tuesday! In the US, the summer holiday season is officially over today. And so, markets here are fully re-engaged. That usually means a reassessment of the economic, political, and investing landscape. And that has sometimes led to…