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Key takeaways from yesterday’s election in Bavaria
The end result of yesterday's election in Bavaria is German chancellor Angela Merkel's sister party, the CSU, losing its absolute majority and being forced to govern in a coalition government after the party's worst showing since 1950.…
A quick note on the Sears bankruptcy
The iconic department store, Sears, has filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the US bankruptcy code. Retail has changed a lot in recent years. And for Sears specifically, this bankruptcy has been coming for a long time. It was signalled…
More on Trump’s accomplishments and the gender divide in voting for him
Donald Trump may not always say things the way most presidents before him said them. But what does it matter? Here's my answer.
$200 oil as a black swan
$200 oil was not on any list of probable outcomes I've seen or considered recently. I think it's fair to say that $200 oil - if it were to happen - would be a black swan event. And it would usher in a massive global economic contraction…
More on bank earnings, the threat to democracy and playing with authoritarian ideology
On banks, I am in Jamie Dimon's camp, thinking that this expansion has legs. So I see the sell-off as purely technical in nature and not a portent of recession.
On politics, the macro view is one where authoritarianism is being touted and…
Bank earnings, rising mortgage rates, what strategists say about the selloff, and “dangerous…
I have six sections in todays's newsletter: markets, macro, micro, the US, the UK, and China. So there's a lot of news flow, most of it negative unfortunately. The key piece in the mix of all of this is the 4.2% update to the GDPNow…
Why the ten-year’s hitting 3.25% has spooked asset markets
This is how Fed tightening regimes work
We're bracing for another big sell off in equities today. I don't know if you saw my piece yesterday on market groups breaking below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages. I said "I don’t have a view…
100-year storm as market groups break below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages
1 - Hurricane Michael is ’100 year’ storm, Gov. Rick Scott warns
Hurricane Michael, which intensified into a Category 4 storm overnight, is expected to make landfall at that strength near Panama City later Wednesday. Forecasters said the…
Some thoughts on the impact of $100 oil on the US, Europe, Japan and EM
Last week, WTI for November delivery passed the $76 a barrel mark. And since September, speculation has been rife that oil could top $100 a barrel in due course. If oil prices do continue to rise, that's going to have very different effects…
Asian firm confidence at 3-year low as Singapore and India drive wealth gap
Below are my top twelve news stories for the day with added commentary.
1 - Asian firms’ confidence sinks to near 3-year low on trade war fears
Representing the six-month outlook of 104 firms, the Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business…