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Anxiety over PSI and the Greek bond swap
Uncertainty over the participation in the Greek bond swap is a major source of anxiety today. Rumors circulated earlier that the PSI "invitation" would be extended by a week due to low participation have been officially denied, but rumors…
Coming Soon to Credit Writedowns
I'm back. The vacation is now over and I am ready to get down to business. I hope you enjoyed the other posters over the last two weeks. You have probably seen a few of the posts I have written since Saturday, so let me now tell you about…
Brief comments on the upcoming US employment numbers
This is a silver level post. Coming up on Friday we get the latest monthly jobs numbers and they are awaited with great anticipation by the market. Of late, the headline numbers have been terrific, but can it last?
Markets Brace for Poor Developments
The US dollar is broadly higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies amid concern that the Greek PSI will not see sufficient participation to avoid the triggering of the collective action clauses or worse. At the same…
News Links: Will Spain spark an EU anti-austerity crusade?
News links for 6 Mar 2012.
Is Germany about to lose its best friend?
Will Germany lose its best friend in the Upright Brigade? And if so, will this encourage Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain etc. to question Germany-encouraged austerity policies? Spain’s prime minister has already said that the…
On Spain’s missing its deficit targets
This is a silver level post. Spain is now fessing up that its going to miss 2012 targets as well as its 2011 deficit targets. For Credit Writedowns readers, this should come as no shock because I predicted this months ago. Here's the…
On Moral Hazard
This is a silver level post. The biggest problem most people have with the bailouts is not that the banks were bailed out but additionally that there seem to have been no consequences for individual actors, the executives that brought the…
Economy Still Burdened With Excessive Consumer Debt
For some time we have maintained that the economy, following the severe 2008 credit crisis, would grow at an exceeding slow and uneven pace, and this is the way it is playing out. This is unlike the garden-variety post-war inventory…
The Tragedy that is Spain
The devolution in Spain is particularly troubling. The new fiscal compact had just been signed last week, which includes somewhat more rigorous fiscal rule and enforcement, when Spain's PM Rajoy revealed that this year's deficit would come…