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On Apple’s earnings
There's a lot of angst surrounding Apple's earnings announcement because of the stock's sell-off. While I have turned bearish on Apple, I still believe the numbers for the quarter will be good. The question for me is guidance.
Will Britain be forced out?
I want to briefly reiterate the theme of an October post on Britain's role in Europe because of a speech the Prime Minister David Cameron made earlier today. Cameron, in a major speech in London, promised that if his party wins the next…
Confirmation of my view on Ireland and Portugal from Olli Rehn
This is an update to today's weekly on Ireland and Portugal. Olli Rehn, the European Economics Commissioner has just confirmed my months' long forecast on how the Irish and Portuguese bailouts would proceed: with an OMT-style exit…
Grexit
I never subscribed to the idea that Greece was going to be expelled from the euro zone in 2012. However, my view on Greece is more pessimistic than most. Most policy makers in Europe would have you believe the euro crisis is over. Here's…
On the importance of supply side problems
Raghuram Rajan has an interesting post now up on Project Syndicate. The overall tone of it has an Austrian feel as it stresses the failure of stimulus to allow developed economies to attain higher GDP growth a full five years after a…
Moving away from the new normal: PIMCO’s secular preview questions
In 2009, PIMCO coined the phrase, the "New Normal" to describe the post-crisis macro malaise they expected us to have. They were spot on and this phrase gained universal appreciation. Now, four years later, it looks like they are ready to…
On the Portuguese and Irish bailout extension
Last October, I highlighted the issue of bailout extensions to Ireland and Portugal and so I want to re-visit this theme now that Portugal and Ireland are in the news looking to change the terms of their existing bailouts.
Republicans to focus on sequester as debt ceiling to be raised
Although the House GOP leadership has been divided on how to deal with the upcoming fiscal contests, they have apparently decided to raise the debt ceiling and focus on the sequester as I have predicted.
On Germany’s avoiding recession
While Germany's numbers for Q4 2012 were poor, showing a contraction of 0.5%, I noted in my last post on Germany that this does not mean recession. The contraction was due to export and capital investment figures, which look to rebound in…