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Chart of the day: Emerging Market Currencies and Local Currency Debt
The X-axis is the change in the spot currencies against the dollar since late May. The Y-axis is the change in the local 5-year debt. It is a useful way to conceptualize what has happened from a total return perspective. Korea, Czech,…
Raghuram Rajan to face impossible choices as India’s new central banker
India is about to get a new new central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago economist with outstanding academic credentials. He is expected to start this Thursday, smack in the middle of a financial crisis the likes of…
On market vulnerability, profits, p/e ratios and the S&P500
My caution on U.S. markets is based not just on technical factors coming from the crisis in emerging markets and the longstanging lack of a market correction. I am also concerned that interest rates have started to rise against a backdrop…
Credit growth remains the weakest link in Eurozone recovery
In spite of some positive economic signals out of the Eurozone, the area continues to struggle with credit growth. The latest loan growth measures still look quite bleak. We may however be seeing the first signs of the bottoming out of…
The Dollar Rides High against Majors, while Emerging Markets Recover
The dollar is broadly higher against the major currencies, with the Swedish krona and euro suffering the most. Poor retail sales in Sweden and unexpected weakness in the German labor market report (unemployment rose 7k vs the consensus…
Italy is the Weak Link in Europe
The capital outflow from the emerging markets is proving as destabilizing as the previous inflows. Pundits can talk about currency wars all they want, but the real issue is the ability to cope with volatile capital flows, which is the…
“The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders”
Everything I have read says that the U.S. is going to bomb Syria. The only question is how to win over the American people in the court of public opinion. So that's where the Göring quote comes in. Basically, he's saying that dictatorships…