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Grokking upside scenarios in Crimea
As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major…
The Fed and the Return of Ad Hockery
By Marc Chandler
There has been sharp rise in US interest rates and the dollar in the immediate response to the Federal Reserve's statement. The key it seemed was the expectation that federal funds would be at 1% at the end of next year.…
Using Croatia as an analogy for Crimea
Yesterday, I laid out what the annexation of Texas in 1845 might say about Vladimir Putin’s motives in Crimea. My conclusion, however, was that, whatever Putin’s motives, the Texas annexation tells us military confrontation was not to be…
Marc Faber: China’s Malinvestment Unwind ‘Will Be a Disaster’
Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg Television yesterday to discuss the Chinese economy. While Faber generally seems to be a long-term bull on China, he had some disquieting things to say about the extent of malinvestment in China due to the…
Using the Texas annexation of 1845 to think about Putins’s motives
In 1845, the United States annexed the Republic of Texas, a breakaway territory from the Republic of Mexico. This annexation created great hostility between the US and Mexico, leading to the Mexican-American war in 1846. The events are 170…
After Crimea: Next Moves
By Marc Chandler
In response to the Crimean referendum, new sanctions have been announced. The European Union has announced sanctions against 21 Russian individuals. This was the bare minimum expected. It will include travel visa bans and…
Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony
Recent economic and geopolitical events should be seen through a longer-term strategic lens. During the Cold War, we lived in a bipolar world dominated by the US and its Allies on one side and the Soviets and their vassal states on the…
Events in China and Ukraine are dominant macro drivers
Weekend developments will dominate the first part of the week ahead. Two developments stand out. First, China announced a doubling of the permissible band from 1.0% to 2.0% around the daily fix. The PBOC deliberately and preemptively…