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The bid for safe assets is due to volatility
The bull market in bonds is not over. The need for safe assets is just as acute and fewer assets today can be considered safe.
On how weak growth begets low yields and on Spain over Germany
I want to revisit two themes from my ten surprises post for a mini-post follow up to the last newsletter. The first theme is Treasury strength due to US economic weakness and the second is Spain outperforming Germany economically. Both of…
Market signals of slower economic growth are mounting
The number of market-based signals indicative of a slowing global economy are mounting along with weak GDP data in a number of important countries. In the face of a strong dollar and weak foreign currency translations, I believe it is…
The weakness in Germany and Germany’s economic paradigm
The German economic miracle is coming unstuck. And while a German recession this year would merely be a technical recession, it would highlight the underlying flaw in German economic policy, both domestically and for the eurozone as a…
Is Japan Back In Recession?
“People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior…
The primacy of monetary policy in Europe
Last November, I posted a two-part piece on the limits of monetary policy based on a speech by Charles Plosser. The message of Plosser’s speech - and many subsequent speeches - has been that central banks are being called on to do too…
The Japanisation Of Europe
By Edward Hugh By now it should be clear that the monetary experiment currently being carried out in Japan (known as “Abenomics”) is fundamentally different from the kind of quantitative easing which was implemented in the United States…
Six Months of Nothing
Even if there are good reasons to believe that the prolonged rally can continue for a little longer, there are equally good reasons to believe that the current equity bull market may end in tears. I am not predicting a repeat of 2008-09. A…
The US economy is economy doing fine
This is a brief update on the US economic trajectory given the most recent data and in anticipation of tomorrow’s jobs report. In July, given the persistent low level of jobless claims, I upgraded my expectations for monthly non-farm…
Everything you always wanted to know about gold
Last Thursday, we ran a unique half-hour segment on gold, gold investing and the gold standard over at Boom Bust. The panel was made up of four investors: Marshall Auerback, Rick Rule, Cullen Roche and Peter Schiff. I moderated the panel…