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EM turmoil and Eurozone laggards
The meltdown in Brazil is not exactly unexpected since one of my ten surprises for 2014 was that Brazil goes into recession. But I find the pace of the currency reaction alarming and we should be prepared for a crisis as a result. In the…
Greek default
Two things I have written recently stand out as I contemplate what will happen in Greece. The first is that the institutions formerly known as the Troika had accepted Greece’s reform list sooner than I expected and that was positive. The…
Partying like it’s 1994
This post is a riff on a Paul Krugman post he titled “Partying Like It’s 1995”. I cam across Krugman’s post via Stephen WIlliamson, who makes some valid points about the Fed’s raising rates in 1994 that bear noting.
Five Investing Themes That Need Further Examination
Tiger 5 - Grexit is inevitable
Why Understanding Money Matters in Greece
As Greece staggers under the weight of a depression exceeding that of the 1930s in the US, it appears difficult to see a way forward from what is becoming increasingly a Ponzi financed, extend and pretend, “bailout” scheme. In fact, there…
2015 as 1994: more on Fed hikes this year
Bill Gross and David Rosenberg are two smart investors who represent the dichotomy in markets right now. Rosenberg doesn't see the Fed hiking rates until 2016, while Bill Gross points to June (link here). Which side of this debate you take…
Albert Edwards on the US currency and China
In the last post at Credit Writedowns Pro on jobs, I promised to talk about currency issues but I didn't! here are two issues then: the increasing current account surplus in Germany and the strong dollar's effect on China.
On Germany,…
June rate hikes are still on the table as US unemployment falls to 5.5%
Today, we got the latest jobs report from the US. And the data were mostly good, with non-farm payrolls expanding by 295,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 5.5%. The big takeaway from the jobs report was not that job growth is so…
Some thoughts on relative value in the US and Europe
Despite the crisis in Greece, I have been talking about rotating into Europe because I believe equities are priced more reasonably than the US and because fixed income assets will get a boost from QE. I want to talk a bit more about this…
European interest rates and the showdown over Greece
I want to riff off a David Beckworth post in thinking about the problem in Europe and extend the discussion with some comments on the meltdown in Greece. The gist of what I intend to say is that the eurozone, as constructed, can never work…