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Economic consequences of income inequality
This is a loaded topic. This entry, however, is not intended to be political. Very few things in economics are good or bad in themselves, but rather can be good under certain conditions or bad under others. I want to try to tease out as…
The long decline of the Great British Pound
The value of the pound in 1945 was too high even for Britain as it was then, let alone now. It is time to put the past behind us, and move on.
Full employment policy in the periphery without the euro exit
In the case of Greece, with fuel, food, and medicine making up a large share of the import bill, further economic disruption and destabilization would likely result from a choice to exit the eurozone. Exiting the euro does not appear to be…
The Wisdom of Crowds
MPT is based on a number of assumptions, some of which are more restrictive than others. The question is whether the sum of those assumptions is so far off the mark that it renders the entire theory absolutely useless. Effectively the…
On Japan’s widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff
I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan's sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at…
A reality check on German household wealth
A recent ECB household-wealth survey was interpreted by the media as evidence that poor Germans shouldn’t have to pay for southern Europe. This column takes a look at the numbers. Whilst it’s true that median German households are poor…
Kyle Bass gets it wrong on Japanese bonds
This is a good interview with Kyle Bass because it cuts to the heart of the matter. If you are a partisan in the Bass debate on Japan, you can see him as being either correct or incorrect. Now, I have covered this before and I have stressed…
Money is Gold
"With the current policy, will need force to keep it going against the interests of the people. You do not need to be a eurosceptic to conclude that such a monetary union is also deeply immoral." - Wolfgang Manchau, Eurozone Break-Up Edges…
When do we call it a solvency crisis?
This post is extracted from my newsletter sent out four weeks ago, at a time when the mood in Europe was much better than now and when there was even a sense that the crisis was in the process of being resolved. I mention this to remind…
Who knew about the Cypriot bank holiday and took capital flight beforehand?
the gist here is that 4.5bn euros in funds were alleged to have been shifted out of Cyprus just prior to the announcement of the country's bank holiday. The article alleges that government officials were prominent amongst those sending…