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Chart of the day: US Manufacturing Employment, 1960-2012
Note the peak in manufacturing jobs in June 1977, which represented 22 percent of all nonfarm payrolls, then, to fall to less than 9 percent of total employment today. It’s too earlier to claim victory with the current recovery in the…
What is this “Financial Instability Hypothesis” by Hyman Minsky really about?
In his publications in the 1950s through the mid 1960s, Minsky gradually developed his analysis of the cycles. First, he argued that institutions, and in particular financial institutions, matter. This was a reaction against the growing…
Ptolemaic Economics in the Age of Einstein
Paul Krugman’s claim that those who argue banks play an essential role in macroeconomics are “Banking Mystics” has a natural riposte: Neoclassical economists like Krugman who believe that capitalism can be modelled without either money or…
All S&P sovereign credit ratings in order from Australia to Greece for January 2012
In the wake of today's extraordinary credit ratings action for the euro zone by Standard and Poor's, below are the rating agency's sovereign credit ratings.
Leaked Greek bailout document: Expansionary fiscal consolidation has failed
Below is the leaked Greek bailout document that everyone has been talking about. Yesterday, the Financial Times first revealed this analysis' existence. Here is Rob Parenteau's understanding of what the Troika analysis demonstrates about…
George Soros: “People don’t realize that the system has actually collapsed”
This is an interesting way of looking at it. I have been under the same impression a lot of people are, that the system is teetering on the edge and policy makers are being pushed by markets to save/reform it. But what if what Soros here…
UBS: Euro break-up – the consequences
The following is excerpted from today’s UBS research note by Stephane Deo, Paul Donovan and Larry Hatheway on the consequences of a euro break-up. The full note is embedded below.
What is pro-cyclicality?
Procyclicality is fine for states as a constraint despite how they exacerbate the swings in the business cycle, creating deadweight losses. The federal government can always counter this pro-cyclicality and smooth out the cycle. This is one…
Massive Iceberg Ahead for the European Monetary Union
Guilio Tremonti, the Italian Finance Minister, last week compared Germany and its small-minded Chancellor Angela Merkel to a first-class passenger on the Titanic. To repeat: this is not a problem confined to the periphery. The sovereign…
What are the differences between QE1, QE2 and QE3?
Last week, when discussing what QE3 could look like I indicated that were the Federal Reserve to start expanding its balance sheet, QE3 will see interest rate caps after a pause and period of reflection. Let me address the differences…