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The wisdom of crowds and government bond markets
When you look at how markets are positioned, it’s clear that a lot of people see continued low growth for years to come – a veritable Japanification of the US economy. I hope this is one of those times that markets are wrong. But I am not…
Is the new rout in oil getting worrying?
Earlier this morning, the New York Mercantile Exchange was quoting delivery for light sweet crude in July at $43.30. That’s a far cry from the $55 average that analysts had expected for 2017 as recently as last month. And all indications…
France: What Macron means when he says the EU must reform or face Frexit
At the weekend, French Presidential election frontrunner Emmanuel Macron told the BBC that EU leaders “have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the…
Did the Greek bailout money go to ‘liquor and women’?
It is tragic that this ‘liquor and women’ quote is the discussion dominating headlines as the EU celebrates the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome.
The mess in Portugal is negative for debt sustainability
Portugal’s election on 4 October was inconclusive, without any party winning an absolute majority of the votes. The President of the country, a former Prime Minister, allowed his own party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos…
The coming Greek bank nationalization, bail-in and privatization
The existence of capital controls eliminates contagion and makes it possible to bail-in deposits that would normally be considered to have systemic consequences. The more I look at it, the less benign this bailout deal appears. Indeed it…
The Euro is a failure
When I was discussing the Greek economic crisis last night with my colleague Ameera David, she asked me who I blame for the mess we are in. I told her I blame the euro because the euro is a monetary union created for political reasons…
Tax Anticipation Notes: A Timely Alternative Financing Instrument for Greece
The recent election of an explicitly anti-austerity party in Greece has upset the prevailing policy consensus in the eurozone, and raised a number of issues that have remained ignored or suppressed in policy circles. Expansionary fiscal…
Syriza and the French indemnity of 1871-73
The euro crisis is a crisis of Europe, not of European countries. It is not a conflict between Germany and Spain (and I use these two countries to represent every European country on one side or the other of the boom) about who should be…
The permanent crisis in the global economy
Since 2007, the global economy has been in a near permanent sate of semi-crisis. Forget about Jamie Dimon’s quip to his daughter that a crisis is something that occurs every five years. Start thinking of the global economy as being in a…