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Political Economy
Italy’s debt is its biggest obstacle but Spain’s budget lacks credibility
The more Spanish officials talk about the budget the less credible it seems. The 10-year yield fell 11 bp on Friday when the budget first presented before the weekend. Now as more detail emerge as it goes to parliament, 10-year yields are…
On Lord Wolfson’s Economic Prize for Leaving Euro Area
At around 9:00am London time this morning Lord Wolfson held a press conference to announce the five finalists in his economics prize contest. Naturally Lord Wolfson is not looking for just any solutions, as the initial question makes clear,…
On Spain’s Budget With Details Tomorrow
Banks, households and the government sector are all engaged in deleveraging. It is difficult to see where aggregate demand will come from. Spanish exports in January were up about 4% from a year ago, but the pace appears to be leveling off.…
Time Unlikely To Be A Healer For Portugal’s Economy
Despite comparisons with Greece, Portugal is not in entirely the same situation, at least not yet it isn't. Crucially, Portugal is currently under no obligation to deal with international or national creditors to increasing government debt…
Bernanke: The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been guest lecturing at George Washington University, giving students a four-part series of talks entitled "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis". Below are the slides that accompanied his…
The Economist sees (and raises)
The Free Exchange blog at The Economist has accepted my bet, and very cleverly (the bastards!) they have added a second one. For two years I have been arguing that a Chinese rebalancing will require much slower GDP growth rates than we…
Video: General Strike in Spain
Below is a video of scenes from the least peaceful parts of today's nationwide general strike in Spain. Other links are below. In general, the protests were peaceful.
Dutch Update: Problem Unresolved, Pressure Mounts
One of our thematic points for Q2 is the increased importance of political factors for the investment climate. Dutch developments are consistent with this and the risk that the government collapses is rising.
Transcript: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Interview with Diane Sawyer
Below is a video excerpt of the interview US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke conducted with ABC News' Diane Sawyer earlier this week. Below that is the transcript.
Greece is a huge importer of French and German weaponry
Greece argues that its needs to strong defense spending for two threats. The first is from Turkey. Yet relations have improved and a military confrontation between these two NATO members seem quite remote. The other threat Greece is thought…