Political Economy

This post is a brief outline in bullet points of my macro view of the global financial crisis both in terms of cause and effect and prediction. My goal here is to help me crystallize what the real issues are and how they are likely to play…

Editor's Note: The following is the text of recent remarks on the European sovereign debt crisis made by legendary investor George Soros at the Festival of Economics in Trento, Italy.

Here's the video from last night's capital Account with Lauren Lyster and Demetri Kofinas. Everyone keeps acting like this crisis is about to boil over and take the world economy with it. It certainly could. More likely though, we will…

I wrote a post earlier in the week at the New York Times on Eurobonds. I will be on RT at 4:30PM Eastern talking about Europe and the global economy. Here's my basic conclusion on Eurobonds

The EU informal summit will be held over a dinner and despite the attention it is receiving, it still seems unreasonable to expect anything concrete. Today's informal EU summit is not the real thing. It is out of the late June summit that a…

The Financial Times has gone through the very useful exercise of creating a decision tree on what a Greek exit from the euro zone entails. I think the Europeans are now actively preparing for a Grexit because to not do so would be folly.…

I have written quite a few posts highlighting the statements made by Herbert Hoover during his US presidency as he struggled with the economic contraction of the Great Depression. The general tenor of Hoover's comments and actions goes to…

By Michael Pettis Normally I don’t like to write about European prospects in the midst of a very rough patch in the market because in that case there isn’t much I can say that isn’t already being said. I find it more useful to wait for…

Without going into the detail of my member posts, here's what I can say: it is clear Greece will eventually exit the euro zone. The question is the timing. But, the political about-face necessary to prevent contagion is a lot larger than…

Ever more voices are talking about the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone despite the fact that there is no formal mechanism for a euro are member country to exit the single currency. This talk, however, makes sense because…