Political Economy

debt matters, even if it is possible to pretend for many years that it doesn’t (and this pretense was made possible by the implicit capitalization of debt-servicing costs). Japan never really wrote down all or even most of its investment…

Summary: Pippa Malmgren discusses the eurozone with Bloomberg below, calling attention to the diverging interests within the eurozone as a critical factor adding stress despite the relative calm we have witnessed in markets of late. Her…

Federal Reserve Governor Stein: The traditional, pre-crisis framing of the question went something like this: Should policymakers rely on ex ante measures to lean against potential financial imbalances as they build up, and thereby lower…

The Eurozone’s tangle of conflicting goals – a series of ‘trilemmas’ – is not without precedent. This column argues that it is reminiscent of the interwar situation. The interwar slump was so intractable not just due to financial issues,…

Summary: Below are some brief thoughts on the consequences of the US government shutdown and its aftermath. In general, I believe the consequences are more likely to be political and long-term without any significant short-term implications…

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on…

While data is difficult to come by, there are signs that the sharp drop in consumer confidence since the federal government shutdown (see post) is translating into weaker consumer spending.

As the US government shutdown continues, the risk of default grows. Below are some thoughts on why this has played out as it has and what the outcome may be.

Realizing that the Larry Summers nomination as the next Fed chairman was going to face some tough opposition in Congress, the president decided to pick someone else. Of course the next obvious candidate is Janet Yellen. There could be…

Against a backdrop which offers an eerie parallel with events which took place somewhat to the North more than 30 years ago, Catalonia is now threatening to separate from Spain. In so doing the region seems to be putting at risk both the…