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Browsing Category
Political Economy
More on the coming trade war with China
On Monday, I wrote a piece outlining how the US has pivoted away from China toward Russia. And the conclusion I drew from the circumstances was that this pivot will create a lot of geopolitical and economic uncertainty depending both on the…
Black Swan Investing and the breakup of Europe
This isn't going to be a thematic post on how to profit from Europe's breakup, despite the sinister title. Instead, it’s a potpourri post - a mashup of different ideas I have right now and want to run by you to organize my thinking about…
Supply-side economics likely to dominate Trump’s economic agenda
Donald Trump’s vision of economics is becoming clear as he makes his cabinet picks. In particular, his picks of Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary and Larry Kudlow as probable Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors point to a more…
Tuning out political hysteria in the US
Ever since Donald Trump unexpectedly won the US presidential election, there has been an unending stream of anti-Trump tirades in the media. The emotions creating this wave of criticism make it difficult to have a reality-based view of the…
China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers
China’s success will depend on the extent to which Beijing in 2016 is able to centralize power, to begin to sell off government assets (probably local and provincial, and not central, government assets), to rein in credit growth, and to…
Donald Trump and the return of Rockefeller Republicanism
With the Republicans taking both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency, the potential for Trump to reshape the party in his image is immense. The question now regarding the Trump economic platform is how much he will bend to the will…
Some initial thoughts on Trump’s victory
Donald Trump's election as President of the United States last night was a surprising and historic event. I think a lot of people are surprised given UK bookmakers had him at 150 to one odds. I would say the shock politically ranks higher…
Re-calibrating our thinking about Brexit after MPC rate cut
The Bank of England has cut interest rates and started a quantitative easing program that includes both government and corporate bonds. This approach was enough to send the pound Sterling down to $1.31 and 10-year gilt rates to a record low…
The EU as a larger Germany post-Brexit and Hugh Hendry’s Eclectica Fund commentary
Stocks have mostly recovered since Brexit and the strong dollar and Yen have reversed much of their overvaluation in recent days. The question remains as to what the fallout from the UK’s departure from the EU will be. I continue to believe…
The British political landscape after the EU referendum
This is going to be a quick post to update you on where I think things are headed now that we have the two final candidates for UK Prime Minister. My overall view continues to be that the base case is for a moderate negative economic,…