Political Economy

The trade war between the US and China is now in full bloom. And it's likely to escalate. My view here has been that China is more vulnerable in this bust-up than the US. Even so, I don't expect the Chinese to back down. On the contrary,…

Because I have family connections to Germany, I always follow events there very closely. And one event on my radar screen has been the controversy surrounding Arsenal football star Mesut Özil, who has retired from international football…

1 Big Thing: Escalating trade war In today's daily post, I want to put the US - China trade war front and center and ask whether it matters to growth. The news, of course, is that US President Trump slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of…

China’s debt problems have emerged so much more rapidly and severely this year than in the past that a growing number of analysts believe that this may be the year that China’s economy breaks. There is no question that China will have a…

Ok I tried. I went into the political arena. And doing so reaffirmed for me why I steer clear. This is just a brief note to tell you why. Let me frame it this way: What if I told you that I thought a lack of civic responsibility of…

Okay, let me go right to Peter's comment from yesterday about fixing the system using the Arizona piece as a jumping-off point. I'm going to be talking about the US here. But some of what I say is probably relevant elsewhere as well.…

Back in early July, I wrote a post on the politics of the German refugee crisis. And the conclusion at that time was that Horst Seehofer was bluffing about blowing up the governing coalition. In retrospect, this proved right. But in the…

Are Trump voters racists? Those of you who have been reading my posts for some time know that I don't believe racism is the defining element behind a rise in populism across the developed economies. I certainly believe populist politicians…

Ten years after the financial crisis, Trump’s rise to power is a consequence of poor governance.

Since the failed military coup d'etat in Turkey two years ago, the relationship between Turkey's President Erdogan and his western NATO alliance partners has been strained.