Political Economy

Right now, getting back to full employment should be the first priority. That would go a long way to reducing the deficit

It may not have been the most felicitous choice of phrase, but Mark Halperin’s characterization of Barack Obama was not far off the mark, even if he did get suspended for it.

You get the inevitable flip flop

Now obviously, there are the issues of efficiency and fairness to think about. However, I want to look at this from a pure forecasting perspective. and stick to the tack I began in October 2010 with “Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy…

The following is an outline for a proposed new Greek government bond issue to provide all required medium term euro funding for Greece on very attractive terms. The new bond issue includes an addition to the default provisions that…

As had been anticipated, the Greek parliament has approved the austerity measures along party lines. The parliament will vote on the implementation bill tomorrow. This may be a bit stickier, but it too is likely to pass. Assuming so,…

I want to take a look at the latest news concerning the Greek situation using the political framework I laid out earlier in the month.On the whole, things are proceeding pretty much as anticipated.

A world in which basic natural resources are neither cheap nor abundant and in which the debt levels in leading economies are very high is one prone to geopolitical instability.

Slovenia’s problems highlights the fundamental deflationary bias of the euro system and all fixed exchange rate systems more generally.

If the EU/IMF does this for Greece why not Ireland and Portugal? It is difficult to envision Ireland being able to go back to the markets next year as originally intended. Therefore, it too will likely require another round of assistance.…